Dalena Reporters l December 24, 2025
Nigeria’s Budget Office of the Federation has confirmed that the country did not meet its projected oil revenue targets for the first half (H1) of 2025, highlighting significant fiscal pressures as the government strives to fund its 2025 budget amid under-performing oil receipts.
In its Budget Implementation Report covering the first and second quarters of 2025, the Budget Office said gross oil revenue totalled only ₦9.32 trillion combined far below the prorated budget estimate of roughly ₦25.52 trillion expected for the period. This gap translates to a shortfall of approximately ₦16.2 trillion, meaning oil earnings achieved just about 36.5 per cent of the projected revenue target for H1. ( See also: similar government disclosures on oil revenue underperformance).
Breaking the figures down, the authorities reported that oil revenue in both the first and second quarters of 2025 fell sharply short of expectations:
- In Q1, gross oil revenue was ₦4.55 trillion, representing about 64 percent below its prorated projection of ₦12.76 trillion.
- In Q2, gross oil revenue stood at ₦4.77 trillion, similarly missing its quarterly target by more than 62 percent.
- These results underscored a sustained shortfall across the half-year period.
Despite exceeding the actual oil revenue recorded in the equivalent period of 2024, the performance still lagged far behind 2025’s ambitious budget expectations reflecting enduring challenges in production levels, global crude prices, and industry constraints that continue to weigh on government income.
The shortfall has broader implications for fiscal planning, given Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil receipts to fund public expenditures and service debt. It also compounds concerns over the government’s ability to meet revenue targets for the full year and sustain capital investment in infrastructure, security, and social programmes. Economic experts have pointed to structural constraints including lower production than budgeted and volatile global oil markets as key drivers of the underperformance.
As Nigeria enters the final quarter of the fiscal year, policymakers are expected to revisit revenue-mobilisation strategies and expenditure priorities to address the widening gap between budget projections and actual receipts pressing issues in a year marked by persistent revenue shortfalls across multiple sectors of the economy.
Published by Dalena Reporters.