Date: July 9, 2026 l Reporter: Bill James
Zambia is heading into a pivotal August presidential election that is shaping up as a referendum on President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic record, with voters being asked to judge whether signs of macroeconomic recovery under his government have translated into meaningful improvements in everyday life.
Hichilema, who took office in 2021 after defeating Edgar Lungu, is seeking a second term at a moment when Zambia’s economy presents a mixed political picture. On paper, the country has posted notable gains: inflation has fallen to its lowest level in eight years, debt restructuring has eased some of the pressure created by Zambia’s sovereign default, and higher copper prices have helped stabilize revenue expectations in Africa’s second-largest copper producer. But for many ordinary Zambians, the cost of living remains painfully high, leaving the opposition with an opening to argue that the government’s economic recovery story has not been felt in households across the country.
Reuters reported that Hichilema is favoured to win re-election, but the emergence of opposition candidate Brian Mundubile has given the race sharper political edges than earlier expectations suggested. Mundubile, a lawyer and first-time presidential candidate, is backed by a recently unified opposition and has sought to frame the election as a test of whether Hichilema’s economic achievements are real in social terms or largely confined to statistics and investor sentiment. His central message is that improved reserves, debt deals and international confidence mean little if Zambians still struggle with food prices, employment insecurity and daily financial pressure.
That argument goes to the heart of the election. Hichilema inherited a country in deep economic distress, with Zambia still reeling from the debt crisis and default that had badly damaged confidence in the state’s finances. Since then, his administration has pursued fiscal consolidation, creditor negotiations, and renewed engagement with international investors and institutions. Those efforts have helped Zambia regain some economic credibility. Reuters reported last week that investor appetite for Zambia has returned, particularly in the mining, energy and agriculture sectors, as fiscal reforms and debt restructuring improved sentiment around the economy.
Yet elections are not won on macroeconomic indicators alone, and that is where Hichilema’s challenge lies. While inflation easing and reserve improvements matter to economists and markets, voters often judge governments by food prices, electricity costs, wages, and the general affordability of life. If households still feel squeezed, then the president’s strongest economic talking points may not be enough to neutralize public frustration. In that sense, the election is not simply about whether Zambia’s economy has improved in aggregate, but whether the benefits of that recovery have reached enough people to secure another five years in office.
The campaign is also unfolding amid concerns about Zambia’s democratic climate. Critics of Hichilema have accused his administration of increasingly restrictive behaviour toward opposition voices, including the use of policing and legal tools that they say make it harder for rivals to campaign freely. Reuters noted that a 2025 cyber-crimes law and constitutional changes expanding parliament have become part of the opposition’s case against the president, with critics arguing that such measures could tilt the political field in favour of the ruling United Party for National Development. Hichilema’s allies reject those accusations, but the complaints ensure that the election debate is not only about economics, but also about the health of Zambia’s democratic space.
Still, Hichilema retains important structural advantages. As incumbent, he has the visibility, state profile, and institutional leverage that come with office. He can point to debt progress, moderating inflation, and a degree of restored international confidence as evidence that Zambia has moved away from the brink it faced in 2021. Polling cited by Reuters before Mundubile entered the race showed Hichilema in a strong position, though analysts cautioned that a more united opposition could make the contest tighter than earlier surveys suggested.
For Zambia, the stakes go beyond who wins the presidency. The election will serve as a broader test of whether economic stabilization under difficult post-default conditions is politically sustainable when living costs remain high. It will also show whether a recovery narrative built on investor confidence, copper exports and fiscal repair can survive voter frustration over the slower pace of improvement in everyday conditions.
In that sense, the August vote is likely to become a judgment not just on Hichilema himself, but on a larger governing proposition: that macroeconomic discipline, debt restructuring and restored investor trust can eventually deliver enough social relief to keep public faith intact. If voters believe that process is working, Hichilema is well positioned for a second term. If they decide the recovery has passed them by, Zambia’s election could become a warning that economic progress on paper is not always enough to secure political survival at the ballot box.