U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31%, the lowest level recorded during either of his presidential terms, as Americans express growing concern about gasoline prices and the state of the economy less than three weeks before the November 3 congressional elections.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted from October 16 to 19, also found Democrats holding a substantial advantage over Republicans in the national congressional preference question. Among registered voters, 47% said they would vote for a Democratic candidate if the congressional election were held today, compared with 35% who chose a Republican candidate.
The resulting 12-point Democratic advantage is the widest recorded in the current 2026 midterm election cycle.
The findings provide a new warning sign for Trump's Republican Party as voters prepare to determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
Trump's Approval Drops to 31%
The Reuters/Ipsos survey found that only 31% of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president, while his approval rating declined by one percentage point from the previous Reuters/Ipsos survey two weeks earlier.
The 31% figure represents the lowest approval rating recorded for Trump during either of his presidential terms, according to the poll.
Trump's approval rating has been under sustained pressure throughout the fall. A Reuters/Ipsos survey earlier in October put his approval at 32%, itself a record low at the time. A September poll had also recorded a sharp decline in his standing.
The latest result therefore represents another step downward heading into an election in which Republicans are defending their congressional position.
Democrats Lead Republicans by 12 Points
The most politically significant finding may be the generic congressional ballot.
Among registered voters surveyed, 47% preferred a Democratic candidate, compared with 35% for a Republican candidate.
| Measure | Democrats | Republicans | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | 47% | 35% | Democrats +12 |
| Trump's job approval | — | — | 31% approve |
The generic ballot is a national measure of voter preference rather than a prediction of the number of seats either party will win.
That distinction is important because congressional elections are decided in individual states and districts. A national polling advantage does not automatically translate into control of Congress.
Still, the 12-point gap represents the largest Democratic advantage recorded in the Reuters/Ipsos polling for this election cycle.
Why the Economy Is Becoming a Political Problem
The poll comes as gasoline prices and broader household costs become increasingly important political issues.
Reuters reported that Americans' concerns about high gasoline prices are contributing to dissatisfaction with Trump's economic performance.
The latest poll found 68% of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy, including 37% of Republicans.
Democrats were also viewed more favorably than Republicans when respondents were asked which party would do a better job handling the economy. Democrats held a 40% to 33% advantage on that question.
The findings are politically significant because economic performance is traditionally one of the most important factors influencing voters during congressional elections.
When voters believe that their household finances, transportation costs, food prices or other expenses are deteriorating, dissatisfaction can extend beyond the president personally and affect the party controlling the White House.
Gasoline Prices Put Additional Pressure on the White House
Gasoline has emerged as a particularly visible economic issue because consumers encounter fuel prices frequently and directly.
The Reuters/Ipsos findings suggest that concerns about gasoline prices are contributing to broader dissatisfaction with the administration.
The issue is especially important ahead of the midterms because voters do not have to follow complex economic indicators to experience higher fuel costs. Drivers encounter the prices at gas stations, while businesses can face higher transportation and operating expenses.
That can create wider concerns about the cost of living.
The latest poll therefore comes at a politically difficult moment for the White House, with voters assessing the economy at the same time that congressional campaigns enter their final weeks.
Republicans Face a Difficult Midterm Environment
The November 3 elections will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years.
For Republicans, losing control of either the House or Senate could make it significantly harder for Trump to advance his legislative agenda during the remainder of his term.
A Democratic-controlled chamber could use congressional authority to challenge, delay or reshape elements of the president's policy program.
However, the national polling numbers should not be interpreted as a guaranteed prediction of the election outcome.
Congressional elections are determined through hundreds of individual contests. The Senate is particularly affected by the states holding elections in a given cycle, while House races depend on district-level candidates, turnout and local political conditions.
Reuters noted that Republicans continue to have structural advantages in some individual House and Senate contests despite the national Democratic advantage.
Women Show Stronger Support for Democrats
The survey also identified a notable gender gap in congressional preferences.
Among women surveyed, 50% said they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 32% who preferred a Republican.
Men also favored Democrats in the poll, although by a smaller margin.
The gender divide could become important because women make up a large share of the American electorate, and differences in turnout can influence the outcome of closely contested congressional races.
The poll's findings suggest that Democratic candidates may be entering the final weeks of the campaign with an advantage among women, although individual races can differ considerably.
The Poll Included More Than 1,600 Americans
The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted online between October 16 and October 19.
It included 1,679 U.S. adults, including 1,279 registered voters.
Ipsos said the nationally representative probability sample was weighted to account for demographic and political characteristics, including age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income, region, metropolitan status and previous presidential voting behavior.
The margin of sampling error was approximately 2 percentage points for the full adult sample, while Reuters reported a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points for registered-voter results. Ipsos separately reported a design-adjusted margin of error of 2.4 percentage points for the entire adult sample.
As with all political polling, the results represent the opinions of the people surveyed and contain a degree of statistical uncertainty.
A Continuing Decline in Trump's Poll Numbers
The latest result follows several difficult Reuters/Ipsos polls for the president.
In August, Trump's approval rating stood at 33% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey, with dissatisfaction linked in part to concerns about the economy and U.S. military involvement in Iran.
By September, the rating had fallen further, reaching 32% in one survey.
The October 5 Reuters/Ipsos poll again placed Trump's approval at 32%, before the latest survey recorded 31%.
The sequence shows that the latest number is not an isolated result but part of a broader period of weak approval for the president.
What the Results Could Mean for the November 3 Elections
The poll provides Democrats with an encouraging national picture just weeks before Americans vote.
A 12-point Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot could indicate that voters are increasingly prepared to use the midterms to express dissatisfaction with the president and his party.
However, the ultimate outcome will depend on turnout, individual candidates, competitive districts and states, campaign organization and issues that dominate the final days of voting.
National polls cannot determine which party will win a particular Senate seat or House district.
The results nonetheless indicate that Republicans enter the final stage of the campaign facing a difficult political environment.
Trump Still Has Time to Change the Political Narrative
Despite the unfavorable numbers, the election has not yet been decided.
The remaining campaign period gives both parties an opportunity to influence voters, particularly those who remain undecided or whose voting intentions are not firmly established.
For Trump and Republican candidates, improving perceptions of the economy and addressing concerns about gasoline and household costs could be central to their strategy.
Democrats, meanwhile, will attempt to turn dissatisfaction with the administration into congressional votes while persuading voters that they should be entrusted with greater power in Washington.
The effectiveness of those strategies will ultimately be measured at the ballot box rather than through national polling.
Why the Midterms Matter for Trump's Remaining Presidency
The November elections will be the first major nationwide test of Trump's second-term presidency.
If Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump would have a stronger opportunity to pursue his legislative priorities during the final two years of his term.
If Democrats capture either chamber, Trump's ability to pass new legislation could be substantially constrained, while congressional oversight of the administration could intensify.
That makes the 2026 midterms consequential not only for Congress but also for the direction of U.S. policy through the remainder of Trump's presidency.
The Reuters/Ipsos findings therefore arrive at a critical moment. With Trump's approval at 31%, Democrats holding a 47% to 35% advantage on the generic congressional ballot, and economic concerns continuing to dominate voter sentiment, the political landscape entering November 3 appears increasingly challenging for the Republican Party.
Source: Reuters/Ipsos mid-October 2026 survey, conducted October 16–19, 2026. Ipsos Reuters/Ipsos Mid-October Survey