ABUJA — Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products has continued at an enormous fiscal cost, with a Sahara Reporters analysis claiming that the country imported fuel valued at about ₦53 trillion in the first nine months of 2025 under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. According to the unverified claim circulating online, this figure includes importation of refined petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and other fuel derivatives, despite government promises to reduce dependency on foreign fuel.
The reported figure — if accurate — highlights the persistent structural challenges in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector and the struggle to transition from import dependency to domestic refining output, even as several major refineries have resumed operations.
Import Costs and Domestic Refining Reality
Although the specific ₦53 trillion figure has not been independently corroborated by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) or confirmed by government agencies, data from industry sources indicate that fuel imports remain a significant burden on the economy. For example, Nigeria’s fuel import bill in the first half of 2025 had already reached figures in the trillions of naira, even as local refineries expanded capacity.
Analyses of trade data show that the value of premium motor spirit (petrol) imports dropped sharply from ₦11.5 trillion in the first nine months of 2024 to about ₦5.42 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, a more than 50 per cent year-on-year decline attributed by analysts to increased domestic refining output — particularly from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began producing petrol at scale during the year.
However, despite the decline in petrol import bills, Nigeria remains heavily reliant on imported refined products to meet daily consumption needs, with import volumes continuing to represent a large share of total fuel supply even as local production increases.
Government Policy and Structural Issues
The Tinubu government has taken steps aimed at strengthening domestic refining and reducing import costs, including the introduction of a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel to protect local refineries and encourage domestic supply, effective late in 2025. The tariff is part of broader market-responsive reforms designed to align fuel prices, safeguard revenue and promote energy security.
Nevertheless, critics argue that import dependency persists due to a combination of factors including logistics bottlenecks, operational challenges at state-owned refineries, insufficient supply from local facilities, and a downstream sector still dominated by importers. Even strong domestic players like Dangote’s refinery are scaling production in phases, not fully eliminating the need for imports.
Economic Impact and Controversies
Fuel import bills of this magnitude, especially if they reach the scale claimed by the online report, have significant macroeconomic implications: they contribute to outflows of foreign exchange; place pressure on the naira and foreign reserves; and affect government revenue priorities — including spending on infrastructure, security, and social services. Critics of the fuel policy also argue that continued high import bills undermine the goals of the Petroleum Industry Act reforms intended to restructure Nigeria’s oil sector.
Supporters of the policy shift maintained by the Tinubu administration — including the removal of petroleum subsidy in 2023 — argue that the shift toward market-based fuel pricing and local refining expansion will, over time, reduce import dependency and stabilize prices, even if import figures remain high in transition years.
Verification and Ongoing Debate
It is important to note that the ₦53 trillion figure appears only in the Sahara Reporters claim and has not been independently verified by official statistics released by the NBS or other credible trade data sources. Analysts urge caution in interpreting such large figures and recommend cross-checking with official foreign trade reports for accuracy.
As Nigeria continues to balance domestic fuel production with import requirements, the debate over energy sector reform, import costs, and economic sustainability remains central to policy discourse in 2025 and beyond.