December 18, 2025 — Dalena Reporters
Africa is witnessing a surge in power grabs that resemble a wave of coups and unconstitutional changes of government, prompting analysts to question whether such events are interconnected — and if the continent is experiencing a form of “coup contagion.” A Monitor (Uganda) special report explores this trend, its drivers and the broader implications for African politics and governance.
Since 2020, at least 11 successful military takeovers have occurred across Africa, with Guinea, Niger, Sudan, Chad, Madagascar and Gabon each experiencing coups, Burkina Faso and Mali undergo two each, and Benin registering a failed attempt. This pattern has drawn international attention and alarm, including warnings from the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres about a potential coup “epidemic.
Are Coups Contagious?
Scholars differ on whether a successful coup in one country directly increases the likelihood of another. Traditional quantitative studies suggest limited evidence of immediate contagion, emphasizing that domestic conditions such as weak institutions, insecurity and poor governance remain the most significant factors influencing coup attempts. Critics argue that military plotters are more influenced by their internal political landscapes than by external examples.
However, some experts contend that would-be coup plotters do observe contemporaneous power seizures elsewhere and incorporate those developments into their own planning, especially when they perceive political or military rewards outweighing the risks. Historical examples, like the “Free Officers” movement in the Middle East, show that coups may not be immediate but can occur years after the original event once certain conditions are met.
Drivers Of The Current Wave
A major factor behind recent African coups is the presence of deep-seated governance and security challenges shared across affected regions particularly in the Sahel including:
- Chronic insecurity, often tied to jihadist insurgencies and state inability to provide safety.
- Weak state capacity, limiting effective public administration and service delivery.
- Public frustration with governance quality, which can increase tolerance or even support for military intervention.
Opinion data from groups like Afrobarometer indicate a rising acceptance of military rule in some societies, with visible examples of crowds rallying around coup leaders in places like Niger and Gabon, signaling that internal public opinion can reinforce the appeal of coups.
International Response And Its Limits
International reactions to coups have often been muted or inconsistent. In some cases, responses to coup leaders have been temporary or half-hearted, reducing the perceived cost for future coup plotters. Previous interventions against unconstitutional changes of power have varied widely, sometimes emboldening potential usurpers who expect limited repercussions.
A broader concern is that the international community’s variable enforcement of democratic norms may inadvertently weaken deterrence against coups. Regional bodies like the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have frameworks to sanction unconstitutional power seizures, but scholars argue that more consistent and decisive actions are needed to uphold democratic governance.
The Bigger Picture
The rising incidence of coups and power grabs in Africa is part of a complex interplay of domestic governance failures, security crises and shifting public attitudes toward military interventions. While “contagion” remains a debated concept among political scientists, the pattern of successive power seizures highlights shared vulnerabilities across several African states.
Ultimately, efforts to curb this trend will require strengthened democratic institutions, transparent governance, and consistent international commitment to constitutional order not only punitive measures after coups occur, but proactive support for political stability and citizen trust in democratic processes.