Date: September 10, 2026
Reporter: Emilly Jordan
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he expects the war with Iran to end after the November midterm elections, while simultaneously threatening renewed American military action against a heavily fortified Iranian site linked to the country's nuclear programme.
Trump made the remarks as the six-month-old conflict entered another dangerous phase, with the United States and Iran carrying out their largest wave of attacks against shipping since the war began. The escalation has further disrupted energy supplies through key waterways and pushed Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel.
Speaking to reporters and later addressing the Republican Party's midterm convention in Dallas, Trump said he believed the conflict would end shortly after the November elections. He argued that Iran was attempting to prolong the confrontation in the hope that political pressure from rising energy prices would hurt Republicans at the polls.
Trump said he believed Iran could not sustain the conflict indefinitely and suggested that Tehran was willing to continue fighting in an effort to influence the American election. His comments came as the war, which Washington initially expected to be much shorter, continued to affect oil markets, shipping and the broader global economy.
The president's prediction, however, was accompanied by a fresh warning that the United States could launch another major strike against Iran. Trump specifically threatened action against Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified complex near Iran's heavily damaged Natanz uranium-enrichment facility.
"We notice there's a little activity at Pickaxe," Trump said, warning Iran not to take actions that could trigger an American response. He said the United States would hit the site "very hard" if Tehran continued what Washington regarded as provocative activity.
Pickaxe Mountain contains two deeply buried tunnel complexes and has been viewed by the United States and Israel as an important component of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Trump has been threatening to strike the location since at least July, but the site has not been hit during the conflict so far.
The renewed threat comes after the latest escalation at sea. Iran and the United States have exchanged attacks involving commercial and oil shipping around the region, with Iran saying it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the United States sank five Iranian oil tankers.
The confrontations have raised fears that the conflict could further disrupt one of the world's most important energy corridors. The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial portion of global oil supplies, meaning prolonged disruption could affect fuel prices well beyond the Middle East. Brent crude was trading above $100 a barrel as shipping routes through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remained heavily disrupted.
The security situation has also expanded beyond the direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Saudi Arabia issued multiple emergency alerts in the southwestern city of Khamis Mushait as fighting involving Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement intensified. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on a Saudi air base and oil infrastructure in the area, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile regional conflict.
The latest developments are particularly significant for Trump politically because the war has become increasingly connected to the economic concerns of American voters. Oil and gasoline prices have risen sharply as the conflict disrupts regional energy supplies. Reuters and other reports have indicated that the increase in energy costs has become a major political issue ahead of the November elections.
Trump has sought to defend the war as necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. At the Republican midterm convention, he argued that the United States had no choice but to confront Iran if Tehran remained capable of developing nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Trump has faced increasing pressure over the length and economic consequences of the conflict. Earlier expectations that the war would last only several weeks have given way to a confrontation that has now continued for approximately six months. The president's latest prediction that it will end after the elections therefore represents another timeline for a conflict whose duration has repeatedly exceeded previous expectations.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that some senior members of Trump's administration, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, privately warned that the conflict could potentially continue much longer, possibly extending through the remainder of Trump's presidency. Reuters said it could not immediately verify that report.
The political stakes are considerable. The Republican Party currently faces a difficult midterm environment, and Trump has repeatedly urged voters to treat the congressional elections as a referendum on his administration. At the Republican convention, he argued that maintaining Republican control of Congress was essential to preserving his policies.
Trump has also attempted to offer voters additional economic incentives, including a proposed $5,000 payment to American adults if Republicans retain control of Congress. The proposal could cost more than $1 trillion and would require congressional approval, adding to questions about its feasibility and potential effect on the federal deficit.
For Iran, the continuing conflict is placing further pressure on an economy already affected by sanctions, damaged infrastructure and disrupted oil exports. Tehran has nevertheless continued military operations and demonstrated a willingness to attack shipping and regional targets rather than accept the current American and Israeli pressure without resistance.
The latest confrontation also raises the possibility that an attack on Pickaxe Mountain could produce another major escalation. Because the site is associated with Iran's nuclear programme and is located close to Natanz, any strike could trigger further Iranian retaliation against American, Israeli or regional targets.
For global markets, the greatest immediate concern remains energy security. Continued attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and other regional shipping routes could keep oil prices elevated, increasing transportation and production costs and potentially adding to inflationary pressure in countries far from the conflict zone.
Trump's latest comments therefore present a striking contradiction: while the president is predicting that the war will end soon after the U.S. elections, his administration is simultaneously preparing for the possibility of further military action against one of Iran's most sensitive nuclear-related sites.
Whether the conflict actually ends after the November elections will depend on developments on the battlefield, Iran's willingness to negotiate, the condition of its nuclear infrastructure, the position of Israel and the broader calculations of the Trump administration. For now, the continuing attacks on shipping and Trump's renewed threat against Pickaxe Mountain suggest that the path to an immediate ceasefire remains uncertain.
With oil prices above $100 a barrel, regional governments on heightened alert and military forces continuing to exchange attacks, the Iran war remains both a major international security crisis and an increasingly important political issue for the United States as voters prepare to decide the balance of power in Congress.