Date: September 26, 2026
Reporter: Emilly Jordan
Frustration over the cost of living is emerging as a major issue in Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign for a fourth, non-consecutive term, as voters continue to feel the effects of years of higher food and household prices despite improvements in several economic indicators.
With Brazil’s presidential election approaching on October 4, Lula is arguing that the economy is improving, pointing to record-low unemployment, falling inequality and easing inflation in recent months. But for many households, those improvements have not fully offset the accumulated impact of higher prices.
At a butcher shop near São Paulo’s historic centre, 39-year-old Kleyton Zacarioto told Reuters that customer traffic has declined over several years as food prices rose. He said the pressure on household budgets had influenced his decision not to support Lula.
“Someone who earns a minimum wage has no way to get ahead,” Zacarioto said, according to Reuters. He nevertheless acknowledged that he believed Lula had done positive things during his earlier periods in office.
The experience reflects a broader problem confronting Lula's campaign: persuading voters that recent improvements in economic statistics are translating into meaningful improvements in their everyday lives.
Lula, 80, has acknowledged that the economic situation remains difficult while arguing that inflation is being brought under control. In a recent campaign advertisement, he said he understood the difficulties faced by people struggling to make ends meet and promised that inflation would remain controlled.
The economy has become one of the central issues in the closely contested presidential race. Recent polling has shown Lula and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in a statistical tie in potential runoff scenarios. Reuters reported that polls have identified economic concerns as one factor weighing on Lula's campaign.
A September survey by pollster Quaest found that nearly half of Brazilians believed the economy had deteriorated over the previous year, compared with 19% who said it had improved. The figures illustrate the gap between official economic indicators and public perceptions of household finances.
Flavio Bolsonaro has made the purchasing power of Brazilian households a central part of his campaign. He has repeatedly pointed to supermarket prices and argued that Brazilians' incomes do not stretch as far as they once did.
The cost-of-living issue is particularly important because inflation can affect voters even after the rate of price increases begins to slow. Economists cited by Reuters said the cumulative effect of years of price increases continues to shape how people judge their financial circumstances.
Brazil's labour market, meanwhile, has provided Lula with an important economic argument. Unemployment has fallen to historically low levels, while inequality has also declined. The government has used those indicators to argue that its economic policies are producing results.
But low unemployment does not necessarily mean that households feel financially secure. High levels of household debt and the elevated cost of everyday necessities continue to influence consumer behaviour and political attitudes.
The Brazilian government has also recently lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2026. The Finance Ministry reduced its projection from 2.3% to 2%, citing weaker expectations for the services and industrial sectors, although it maintained a stronger outlook for agriculture.
Lula has sought to present his economic record as one of gradual improvement while warning voters about the consequences of returning to policies associated with his political opponents. His campaign has also emphasized social programmes and measures aimed at lower-income Brazilians.
Earlier in the week, Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani during his visit to the United States for the United Nations General Assembly. The two discussed the rising cost of living, including pressures on groceries and housing. Mamdani said he viewed some of Lula's social programmes as potential examples for addressing financial pressures facing New Yorkers.
The election campaign is also taking place against a backdrop of political and institutional tensions. Lula has warned against foreign interference in Brazil's election and described the vote as a choice involving democracy and what he called denialism. He has also criticized efforts by foreign governments to become directly involved in Brazil's fight against organized crime.
Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula's principal challenger, is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running in this year's election following his conviction for attempting to overturn the 2022 election result. Flavio has received support from several international political figures, including U.S. President Donald Trump, although the Brazilian campaign remains primarily focused on domestic economic and political issues.
With the first round scheduled for October 4, the economy is likely to remain a central issue for voters. The competing narratives are clear: Lula is emphasizing employment, declining inequality and more recent easing in inflation, while his challenger is focusing on the prices Brazilians continue to encounter in shops and supermarkets.
For voters, the election will take place against the backdrop of both improving economic indicators and persistent concerns about household purchasing power. How Brazilians assess that contrast will be part of the broader political debate as the campaign enters its final stage.