January 26, 2026 — Dalena Reporters
Nigeria’s crude oil output under President Bola Tinubu’s administration consistently fell short of its assigned production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) throughout most of 2025, a review of official data shows.
A Dalena Reporters analysis of the OPEC monthly production figures reveals that, although the country met its 1.5 million barrels per day quota in January, June and July 2025, output remained below the target for the majority of the year.
According to the data, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production dropped below the quota in several key months, with February output at about 1.46 million barrels per day, March at 1.40 million, and subsequent months recording similar shortfalls. Output briefly touched the quota in April and both June and July but declined again in later quarters, reaching around 1.42 million barrels per day by December 2025.
The production figures indicate a persistent inability to sustain the OPEC-mandated level of crude oil output, even as Nigeria remains one of Africa’s leading oil producers. Analysts monitoring the sector have highlighted structural challenges including operational bottlenecks and security issues that have complicated efforts to sustain higher production levels.
Industry observers say continued shortfalls could have broader implications for Nigeria’s government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, given the country’s heavy reliance on oil exports to fund a significant portion of its federal budget.
The production performance comes as the federal government pursues policies aimed at encouraging investment and boosting output, including regulatory reforms and incentives for international oil companies.