January 19, 2026 — Dalena Reporters
Beijing, China — New official data released this week confirm that China’s population continued to shrink in 2025, marking the fourth straight annual decline, even as government incentives such as baby bonuses and a relaxed “three-child policy” have sought to reverse demographic trends. Experts warn the sustained contraction poses deep economic and social challenges for the world’s second-largest economy.
According to statistics published on January 19, China’s total population fell by approximately 3.39 million in 2025, bringing the tally to an estimated 1.405 billion a faster decrease than the previous year. Births in 2025 totaled just 7.92 million, down about 17 % from 2024, while deaths climbed to 11.31 million, reflecting lasting demographic headwinds.
The country’s birth rate plunged to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, while the fertility rate the average number of children per woman remains around one birth per woman, far below the 2.1 replacement level needed to sustain population size.
Beijing has overhauled its family planning policies in recent years in response to the demographic slide. After abandoning its decades-long one-child policy in 2016, China first raised the permitted number of children to two, and later to three children per couple in 2021. More recently, the government introduced baby bonuses of about 3,600 yuan ($500) per child under age three, extended maternity leave in some provinces, and launched other pro-natal initiatives.
Despite such measures, analysts say deep-rooted structural factors continue to depress birth rates. The high cost of living, especially in major cities, intense competition for education and jobs, and rising work and housing expenses make child-rearing unaffordable for many young couples. Critics also note that some incentive policies, such as a newly implemented 13 % tax on contraceptives, have attracted controversy, raising concerns about public health without tangibly encouraging births.
Demographers warn the implications of prolonged population contraction are significant. A shrinking workforce compounded by a rapidly ageing population that now includes nearly one-quarter of Chinese citizens aged 60 or older threatens economic growth, strains pension and healthcare systems, and undermines long-term productivity. Some projections suggest that without profound reforms, China’s population could fall below 1.3 billion by 2050 and continue declining through the century.
The decline also complicates Beijing’s broader economic strategy as China transitions from a manufacturing-led economy to one driven by innovation and consumption. A reduced labor force could hamper competitiveness in key global industries while magnifying dependency ratios the number of dependents for each working-age person.
Government officials have acknowledged the demographic challenge, pledging additional policy support to ease the financial burden on families and encourage marriage and childbirth. However, experts argue that standalone incentives are unlikely to reverse the trend without systemic reforms, including housing affordability measures, robust childcare infrastructure, workplace protections for parents, and cultural shifts that address gender expectations around family and career.
China’s demographic situation mirrors broader patterns seen across East Asia, where countries such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan also grapple with low fertility and aging populations. However, China’s sheer scale and its historic role as the world’s most populous nation until it was overtaken by India in recent years amplifies the stakes for both domestic policymakers and global markets.
As Beijing continues to refine its population strategy, analysts caution that reversing deep-seated demographic trends will take years, if not decades, and will require more than financial incentives alone. Whether China can meaningfully stem the tide of contraction remains one of the defining social and economic questions of the decade.
### Key Figures:
- 2025 Population: ~1.405 billion (down ~3.39 million)
- Births: 7.92 million (17 % decline)
- Birth Rate: 5.63 per 1,000 (record low)
- Fertility Rate: ~1.0 births per woman